![]() ![]() Most models project future decreases in Atlantic storm frequency in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, he said. A World Meteorological Organization team of scientists reviewed dozens of tropical cyclones studies around the world and found most projected the global frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged. Recent studies do not imply the increase in tropical storm frequency in the Atlantic since 1980 will continue, states an agency website Knutson maintains. That's based in part on work she and Reed completed with one climate model that projected fewer tropical cyclones and fewer landfalling storms in the future. “We just don’t understand what controls how many hurricanes per year in general because we don’t understand what causes them,” she said. Studies have suggested stronger Atlantic hurricanes since 1980 could be the result of changes in aerosol effects, ocean circulation, or the increase in greenhouse gases. Just as detecting a trend in wind speeds can be challenging, Knutson said, “it gets pretty dicey when you’re trying to infer something about greenhouse gas-induced trends in Atlantic hurricane activity.” "It’s tricky in the Atlantic over short periods to conclude much about the changes we’re seeing.” The intensity and frequency of hurricanes, including major hurricanes, has increased in the Atlantic since the 1980s but it's not just attributed to greenhouse warming, "because if you look back further, things were also higher in the 1950s and 1960s,” Knutson said. "We do expect the proportion of Category 4s and 5s will increase as the climate warms." Is human-caused climate change behind stronger storms? "We just don't have enough data to statistically say there's been more Category 4s and 5s over the past 40 years, she said. The percentage that becomes Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, with wind speeds of at least 130 mph or greater, "will likely increase with further greenhouse warming.” The percentage of tropical cyclones, ranked by Categories 1-5, that becomes a Category 3 or higher has increased globally over the past four decades, Knutson said. Warmer water at the ocean’s surface from human-induced climate change is likely helping to fuel more powerful tropical cyclones, Knutson concluded with colleagues in a review of tropical cyclone and climate change science published last year. Five of those were in the last 18 years, with one each in the last three years: Laura, Ida and Ian. ![]() Over 160 years of hurricane history, 12 hurricanes struck the U.S. Is climate change making hurricanes stronger, with higher wind speeds? The incident appears to be the first fatal alligator attack in Louisiana since 1774.The question of whether greenhouse warming has any impact on the frequency of such stalling or slowing systems is still unsettled, Knutson said, and determining whether the two are linked "will take more work."Īfter the flood: Hurricane Ida’s deluge nearly drowned him in his NY apartment. In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, a New Orleans-area man was killed and eaten by a massive alligator, weighing 504 pounds with a length of 12 feet. The 2020 season was the most active since record-keeping began in 1851, bringing 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes. Six Atlantic hurricane seasons in a row have now brought an above average number of storms, despite the federal government raising the definition of an average season earlier this year to 14 named storms. The past few years have done little to quell those concerns. What To Watch ForĬlimate scientists are worried that global warming is fueling conditions that allow for frequent and powerful hurricanes to form. The final storm this season was Tropical Storm Wanda, which dissipated on November 7. Over a seven-week period from August 11 to September 29, 15 named storms formed, including six hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Despite the slowdown, forecasters warned in a midseason outlook that conditions were in place for storms to develop at a rapid pace during August and September, which is exactly what took place. The season got off to a very active start, with five named storms forming by the end of June, though no new storms formed in July. Key Backgroundįorecasters were already anticipating a highly active season before any storms had even formed, noting favorable conditions like warmer than average sea surface temperatures. landfalls, there have now been 19 storms to hit the U.S. Combined with 2020's record-setting 11 U.S. during the 2021 season, nearly triple the average of around three landfalls. ![]() That's how many named storms hit the U.S. The storm caused widespread flooding and power outages. On August 22, Tropical Storm Henri became the first named storm to make landfall in Rhode Island in more than 30 years. Even New England wasn't spared this hurricane season.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |